The Marriage Privilege

How declining marriage rates make America more unequal

Recently, marriage rates have reached an all-time low. The data gets more interesting when you stratify the data based on income. 

(Brookings Institution) 

As you can see above, the decline in marriage rates is universal amongst all income groups, although the decline is much more pronounced amongst the poor. This is a tremendous problem. 

Lower marriage rates are correlated with all sorts of negative effects.  A report from the American Enterprise Institute found states that are  “in the top quintile(of marriage rates) is associated with a $1,451 higher per capita GDP, 10.5 percent greater upward income mobility for children from lower-income families, a 13.2 percent decline in the child poverty rate, and a $3,654 higher median family income.” This is because a two-parent marriage creates ideal conditions to raise children, and encourages responsibility amongst spouses.  When these conditions are realized, children born into lower-income families will have more of an opportunity to improve their lives. When they are not, the cards are stacked against these children from the start.

 Marriage is a crucial part of the social fabric of society and its decline as an institution ought to be concerning. This decline is a major source of income inequality. 

Income inequality has been on the rise since the mid-20th century. The Gini coefficient, or Gini ratio, is one of the most commonly used measurements of income inequality. As you see, according to this metric, income inequality has been steadily increasing since the 1970s. This combined with the decline in income mobility has created a horrible circumstance: a vast number of people trapped at the bottom of the income distribution. 

This is because marriage helps foster a place for the future of our society to grow up and become effective members of civil society. Because a significant chunk of our society is not getting married, certain children are inherently at a disadvantage, which in turn decreases their opportunities in the future. 

The decline in marriage rates, or more precisely, the increase of the marriage gap has increased inequality in the US. One study found that changes in family structure explain 41% of the increase in inequality. Family structure privilege (this is what I will call it)  helps encourage the cycle of poverty by decreasing opportunities for children born into lower-income quintiles. 

So what caused this massive decline in marriage rates? Explanations vary. One of the more interesting explanations (in my view) examines the economic status of men. The proportion of inactive men has more than doubled since 1948. This combined with male wage stagnation could make a vast swath of the male population less attractive to marry, and therefore marriage rates would decline. Of course, there are also cultural factors, such as the rise in moral individualism and increased “liberation” from traditional social structures. In the mid 20th century, there was a counter-cultural push against marriage and other traditional institutions.  One of the effects of this shift was the nationwide legalization of birth control and abortion. 

Janet Yellen and George Akerlof make this point in their Brookings paper stating: We have found that this sudden increase in the availability of both abortion and contraception we call it a reproductive technology shock–is deeply implicated in the increase in out-of-wedlock births.” Essentially, contraception decreased the risk of having children, which meant an increase in sexual activity outside of marriage. Abortion while making pregnancy a “woman’s issue” gave men the ability to isolate themselves from the process altogether.  More precisely, because society has given women the ability to terminate their pregnancy, it has given men the ability to walk out on a pregnancy free of social consequences. The combination of these factors has contributed to the decline in the marriage rate. 

What can we do about this? From a policy perspective, there are a few choices on the table I would recommend. For one, criminal justice reform specifically non-violent drug offenders who are men. Nonviolent drug offenders account for one-fourth of the prison population in our country. Overwhelmingly men, many of whom may have children. Second, the government ought to not penalize certain people for getting married. Certain states have an implicit “marriage tax” where the tax burden that falls on the married couple is less than the combined tax burdens of both people. This is nonsensical. The Bible teaches that a man and woman become “one flesh” when married. Our tax system should view this no differently. 

Lastly, I would advocate for a form of paid maternity leave. One of the major reasons people put off marriage and children is in pursuit of a career, or just trying to survive. Raising children is one of the most important and meaningful things someone can do in their lifetime. We should not force any mother, but especially those of lower-income, to make a choice between earning an income and having a family. 

In conclusion, declining marriage rates are a major issue, especially among poorer families. Fortunately, there is a wide variety of policy tools we have to address this problem, many of which I did not include here.